2022 Election Highlights
New York Gov. Kathy Hochul became the first woman elected to lead the Empire State after she defeated Republican U.S. Rep. Lee Zeldin, according to the Associated Press, in a closer-than-expected race that caught the attention of national Democrats.
You’ve almost certainly heard that by now. And you’ve also heard that we still don’t know the outcome of several key races, including contests that will determine control of Congress. (Follow the latest here.)
I was on the road Tuesday, talking to voters in Albany County and then spending election night at Zeldin’s party in midtown Manhattan. Here are a few takeaways, as reported with my colleagues in The Wall Street Journal:
++ While there are twice as many enrolled Democrats in the state as Republicans, polls showed the race tightening in October and Hochul’s margin of victory was around 5%, according to the state Board of Elections. That marks the best showing by a GOP gubernatorial candidate since George Pataki secured the last Republican statewide win in 2002.
“Zeldin, like a lot of Republicans, got the messaging right for the current climate,” Lawrence Levy, executive dean of the National Center for Suburban Studies at Hofstra University on Long Island. He mentioned congressman’s focus on crime and inflation. “Coming within a few points of Hochul has done a tremendous favor for his party with the damage it caused down-ballot.”
++ Indeed, Republicans netted at least two U.S. House seats in New York after wins that included defeating a member of the Democratic leadership, putting the state at the center of its push to pick up enough districts nationwide to regain the majority.
Republicans will succeed retiring Democrats in two Long Island districts, cementing GOP representation over New York City’s eastern suburbs. In the Hudson Valley, Republican candidates won two elections that were considered tossups, including Republican Mike Lawler’s defeat of Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, the Democrats’ House campaign chief.
Political analysts said the Republican gains in the state were driven by two factors: Zeldin’s unusually strong campaign and district lines that were drawn by a court-appointed special master after judges struck down maps prepared by the Democratic-controlled state legislature.
The Democrat-drawn maps struck down by the court were expected to yield a 22-4 split favoring Democrats. The court-drawn mapgave Democrats a 16-5 advantage over Republicans in safe seats with five others that analysts classified as highly competitive.
“I just keep thinking of the old adage: Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered,” Democratic strategist Peter Kauffmann told POLITICO. “There was a way to draw those lines to make more Democratic seats and withstand a legal challenge. By overshooting, we’re now going to lose two or three more seats than we need to.”
++ Nationally, Democrats fared better than expected. Gubernatorial elections resulted in few changes of control, as Democrats held off challengers in several races that polls showed could be close including Wisconsin, Kansas and Michigan, while Republican incumbents won decisively in Florida and Texas.
Democrats gained ground in state legislatures in the Great Lakes region while also adding to their ranks of states in which they maintain control over all branches of government, though Republicans maintained their overall statehouse advantage, early election results show.
Key flips for Democrats included both legislative chambers in Michigan, the Pennsylvania House and the Senate in Minnesota, according to the nonpartisan National Conference of State Legislatures. Incumbent wins by Democratic governors plus pickups in the Massachusetts and Maryland governors’ races mean Democrats have so far added to their tally of states in which they control all three branches of government.
Control of statehouses is important as both parties push for changes to election administration laws and the U.S. Supreme Court has handed legislatures the power to make policy on issues such as abortion, said Chris Mooney, professor of political science at University of Illinois Chicago.
“The Democrats did a lot better than they should have done, given the situation,” he said, pointing to an uncertain economy and a history of the president’s party losing seats in midterm elections.
THE QUESTION: What was the widest margin of victory in a New York governor’s race?
Know the answer? Drop me a line at jimmy.vielkind@gmail.com. Or just write with thoughts, feedback or to say hi.
THE LAST ANSWER: The state of Washington produces the most apples in the country. New York comes in second.