A Redistricting Redo With Major Effects, Maybe
Yes, we're still talking about redistricting because it's still important
New York’s highest court is set to weigh in on a new set of congressional maps in the state, a ruling that analysts say could position Democrats to pick up as many as five U.S. House districts in the closely held chamber.
As I reported last week in The Wall Street Journal with my colleague Aaron Zitner, New York Republicans appealed the most recent ruling in a Democratic lawsuit. Democrats want to throw out district lines that were in place for last year’s elections and helped the GOP pick up a net three seats in the deep blue Empire State.
Democrats said those maps, drawn under judicial supervision, were only meant to be in place for 2022. If the state’s high court—the New York State Court of Appeals—agrees, political analysts say it would make it harder for the GOP to keep its already narrow majority and offset Republicans’ expected redistricting advantage in North Carolina and possibly Ohio
“The House nationally has become a game of inches,” David Wasserman, U.S. House Editor for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, told me. “So, every seat that can be won through redistricting is a critical seat for the majority.”
New York’s high court previously found that Democratic-drawn map violated a state constitutional prohibition against gerrymandering. In a 4-3 ruling, the court in April 2022 ordered a special master to draw a new map. Elections based on that map yielded 11 GOP House members from New York; Republicans in Washington have 222 seats, while Democrats have 212.
A Democrat-drawn map could have yielded a house delegation with just four Republicans. The Democrats believe either an IRC drawn map or one drafted by state lawmakers would be more favorable to the party than the one implemented by the special master. Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul filed a brief supporting the effort, and House Democrats cheered a midlevel ruling this month that said the court-drawn maps were only meant to be in place for 2022.
It’s unclear when this will come to a head. The Court of Appeals isn’t scheduled to convene until September, and any new districts drawn by the state’s Independent Redistricting Commission or the legislature will also be subject to challenge.
There’s also a question of whether the IRC will begin drawing maps before that happens, or if someone will obtain a court order to stop them from doing so. It’s not the quickest process, especially if you have public hearings.
“It would be in the Democrats’ interest to get the mapping done with as soon as possible, and it’s in the Republican interest to slow the case down,” noted New York Law School professor Jeff Wice told POLITICO’s Bill Mahoney.
PROGRAMMING NOTE: If all goes well, I’ll be in Germany by the time you read this! In future weeks I’ll use this space to share some updates on what I’ve been doing and what I see.
I spent the past week at orientation with the other fellows, a dozen Germans and a dozen North Americans who will be embedded with different news outlets in new countries for the next few months. We visited the U.S. Capitol, bonded over beverages and got to hear presentations from military, media, financial and political experts on both sides of the Atlantic.
Bis später!
THE QUESTION: Which former West Berlin mayor — who later became the West German chancellor — was known for Ostpolitik?
Have an answer? Drop me a line at jimmy.vielkind@gmail.com. Or just write with thoughts, feedback or to say hi.
THE LAST ANSWER: The Amistad was a famous ship hauling enslaved people that put into New London’s harbor.