These are New York's top budget fights
Plus my assessment of New York Republicans after a trip to Binghamton
As New York state lawmakers hash out a budget that’s expected to top $250 billion, they’re whistling past the graveyard when it comes to GOP plans for federal funding cuts.
Hochul and fellow Democrats who control the state Legislature have assumed funding from Washington will continue at the pace set by the Biden administration, which funneled aid to states in the wake of the pandemic through COVID-19 relief bills and enhanced Medicaid reimbursements.
Right now, New York gets around $93 billion a year from the feds. But every sign from the GOP-controlled Congress and President Donald Trump indicates that the fat times are over.
“The risk is across the board,” Andrew Rein, president of the independent fiscal watchdog group Citizens Budget Commission, told me for a column this week. He said the state is spending at unsustainable levels and questioned whether there’s enough money to fund new initiatives – like Hochul’s proposal to send rebate checks to New Yorkers.
“The state may well have to deal with massive cuts and should be preparing for it,” Rein continued. “What that means is trying not to spend every cent available of cash on hand, because when cuts come down, we will need a transition plan to a new, lower level of federal spending. Having funds available will stave off a lot more pain.”
The budget is theoretically due in a week, but all signs are it will be late. (Again.) As best I can tell from talking with officials and other interested parties, negotiations over the big fiscal programs haven’t really begun in earnest. Hochul is putting attention on these things:
++ A school cell phone ban. Hochul wants it to be “bell to bell” around the state, but some lawmakers want to give school districts some leeway. My colleague Jon Campbell reported last week on late pushback from school groups.
++ Jon and I broke the news this week that Hochul is pushing in budget talks for restrictions on wearing masks in public. She views it as a public-safety issue, and supports exceptions for medical and religious reasons. (That presumably captures Halloween and Purim.) But this gets thorny really fast when you think about people who wear masks at protests – including demonstrations that get intense and disruptive. Are they expressing First Amendment rights, or menacing people? Lawmakers need to walk that tight rope, which will take time.
++ Hochul is working with prosecutors to change the laws about discovery, which is the process of sharing evidence with a defendant before a criminal trial. My colleague Jeongyoon Han had a great breakdown on the debate about that here.
++ The proposed tweak to the standard for involuntary commitment to mental health treatment is also still in the mix. I recently highlighted that debate in this article.
++ And then there’s the question of funding for the Metropolitan Transportation Authority. Jon scooped Hochul’s proposal to lean on a payroll tax of New York City’s largest employers to fund capital upgrades to the nation’s largest transit system. Other ideas in the mix include a fee on package deliveries.
RED NEW YORK? Republicans have faced long odds to win statewide office in New York for decades. The state has been a Democratic stronghold for most of the 21st century, and competition between the two parties has become a faint memory.
But GOP officials told me recently that they’re feeling buoyed by President Donald Trump’s gains in the Empire State last year, and they’re eager for next year’s statewide elections. They see an opportunity in a vulnerable Hochul – who won a closer-than-expected election against Republican challenger Lee Zeldin in 2022, and already has members of her own party eyeing a primary.
“We are this close to turning things around,” Bruce Blakeman, the Nassau County executive, “because everyday people – Republicans, common-sense Democrats, independents – they know that these, Democrat-progressive-liberal-woke policies are nuts.”
I went to Binghamton to see Blakeman speak at a GOP dinner. Read my story about the GOP here, and listen below to the radio version.
A spokeswoman for Hochul said, “Republicans’ optimism is laughable.” The big reason? Donald Trump. One of the tensions in the 2026 race will be whether voters are more focused on Republican-controlled Washington or Democratic-controlled Albany, according to Iona University political scientist Jeanne Zaino.
“Republicans are going to be able to use that to their advantage and are going to be able to ask New Yorkers, how secure do you feel?” Zaino said. “But they're going to have to be very careful about embracing Donald Trump.”
FLASHBACK: I followed Rob Astorino to the same Binghamton political dinner in 2014, when he was pre-campaigning for governor. One of his problems was a loud-mouth real estate developer named Donald Trump who was flirting with a run for governor that was always a self-aggrandizing tease. Read all about it here. Life is a circle!
THE QUESTION: Henry Ford and Thomas Edison were on hand to break ground for a hydro-electric factory in which New York municipality?
Know the answer? Drop me a line at jimmy.vielkind@gmail.com. Or just write with thoughts, feedback or to say hi.
THE LAST ANSWER: A few people talked about how the pandemic eroded confidence in public health officials. Others spoke about the benefits of remote work and remote therapy sessions. I miss the occasional lunch at Jack’s Oyster House in Albany. But the fuller acceptance of remote work has made it easier (for me) to be a parent and to travel.