New York's Governor Election Tightens
Republican U.S. Rep. Lee Zeldin has made campaigning in New York City a priority in his effort to unseat Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul, I reported last week in The Wall Street Journal. (Read the whole article here.) Some recent polls have shown the race tightening, with one survey this week putting Zeldin 4 percentage points behind the incumbent in a state that hasn’t elected a Republican to statewide office since 2002.
Zeldin, who represents the easternmost parts of Long Island in Congress, has marched in neighborhood parades and campaigned at ethnic festivals, seeking support among Asian-American and Jewish groups that traditionally have backed Democrats. He has attacked congestion pricing, and news conferences after crimes — like Tuesday’s stop in Jackson Heights after a person was fatally shoved in front of a subway train — have been a regular occurrence.
To win, Zeldin would need to capture more than 30% of the vote in New York City while carrying suburban counties—including on Long Island—and upstate New York by large margins, political consultant Bruce Gyory said.
Recent polls have shown his support in the city between 23% and 39%. Rob Astorino and Marc Molinaro, the GOP candidates in 2014 and 2018, won less than 20% of the vote in the city. Both men lost elections to Andrew Cuomo, who resigned last year amid a sexual-harassment scandal and was succeeded by Hochul, then the lieutenant governor. Donald Trump won 23% of the city vote in 2020.
As I discussed with Christina Greer, Katie Honan and Harry Siegel on the most recent FAQ NYC podcast (listen to it here), politics is tidal and there are lots of signs that the current environment is favorable to Republicans.
Democratic candidates have long counted on heavy support in New York City, and Hochul is no exception. She has won the endorsement of labor unions that represent teachers, hospital and hotel workers and campaigned at Black churches as recently as Sunday. The Democratic State Committee has mailed targeted ads to Black, Hispanic and Asian-American voters in New York City and has spent $1 million on Spanish-language ads.
“I always run like I’m an underdog,” Hochul told reporters Tuesday. She said she is focused on addressing crime and pushed earlier this year for a partial rollback of the state’s bail-law earlier this year. She formed a multistate task force on gun trafficking and announced funding for cameras in every subway car.
The governor’s campaign has attacked Zeldin’s opposition to abortion rights and his ties to Mr. Trump, who is viewed unfavorably by about 60% of the state’s voters and has endorsed the GOP candidate. Zeldin voted against certifying President Biden’s victory in the 2020 presidential election.
But there are signs Hochul is redirecting her fire. On Friday, the governor’s campaign released an ad that was focused on her efforts to boost public safety. On Saturday, she appeared with New York City Mayor Eric Adams to announce that the state would help pay for additional overtime for NYPD officer on subway trains.
POLITICO’s Joe Spector and Anna Gronewold described the turn in a Saturday article: “After spending the summer pounding Republican opponent Lee Zeldin as an anti-abortion, Donald Trump acolyte, Hochul is finding out what other Democrats across the nation are also learning: Crime and the economy are crowding out abortion rights and the former president’s troubles as top of mind issues for voters,” they wrote.
On Sunday, Zeldin — who had been holding out for more debates — finally agreed to a Tuesday night forum sponsored by Spectrum News. Should be worth watching!
THE QUESTION: No Republican has won statewide office in New York since George Pataki in 2002. Who has come closest in the last 20 years?
Know the answer? Drop me a line at jimmy.vielkind@gmail.com. Or just write with thoughts, feedback or to say hi.
THE LAST ANSWER: The Yankees were born from the ashes of the old Baltimore Orioles, so “Baltimore” was the answer I was looking for.