Podcast: Assessing the anti-Trump Case in NH
It's do-or-die for Nikki Haley in the Granite State, analysts say
New Hampshire has a more centrist electorate than some other critical GOP primary battlegrounds, leading some analysts to see it as the best chance for one of Donald Trump’s rivals to notch a win. One reason is that independent voters can cast ballots in party primaries, an electoral quirk that creates more potential support for a candidate who tries to tack to the middle.
The reality is far more complicated, according to recent interviews conducted by The Wall Street Journal for its “Chasing the Base” podcast series. I went the Granite State earlier this month to talk to both die-hard Trump supporters and critics who were ready to cast their lot for former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie or former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley. We didn’t find much activity there by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who ended his presidential campaign this afternoon.
You can find the episode in the feed for the WSJ’s “What’s News” podcast on Spotify or your iPhone’s podcast app. It’s also online here. I traveled with producer Ariana Aspuru and worked with a photographer, John Tully, who made great pictures of the people we met. Check out a photo essay here featuring John’s work.
My trip started in Derry, just southeast of Manchester. I knocked on doors one evening and found a mix of Trump lovers and haters. Voter Jim Jordan (not the congressman) told us he wouldn’t vote for Trump again.
“I think he's got too much baggage, and I think if he had been a nicer person, had a better personality, I think he would've gone a lot farther,” he said.
I also spoke with Wayne MacDonald, a former chair of the GOP state committee and a big backer of Christie. Wayne was the guy talking to Christie backstage in a hot mic conversation about Nikki Haley.
“Ninety-one indictments in four different jurisdictions as Governor Christie has talked about. I think that's very concerning, and I worked as a criminal investigator for the state for 23 years, and charges are not lightly brought,” Wayne told me.
Trump has pleaded not guilty to all the criminal charges against him. They include an indictment in Georgia on alleged election meddling; a federal criminal indictment related to the January 6th, 2021 riot at the U.S. Capitol and alleged efforts to overturn the 2020 election; alleged mishandling of classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago Resort; and a criminal case in Manhattan centered on Trump's alleged role in payments to the porn star Stormy Daniels.
None of it matters to Mike McLaughlin. He’s a contractor who lives near Plymouth, a college town just south of the White Mountains. He ran for the state legislature in 2020 and began a Saturday morning flag-wave as part of his campaign. He lost the election, but the demonstration has been a rain-or-shine affair since.
“If you're going to accuse and you're going to charge him for it, by all means, take him to court. But I see a man and his family who aren't afraid to answer those questions in court,” Mike told us during a roundtable discussion with people who are regulars at the flag-wave.
Indeed, Trump’s supporters said they were more likely to back him because of the charges. It’s easy to see why the former president’s campaign saw bumps in fund-raising after the indictments.
“The more they attack him, the more it's an attack on us,” retired engineer Steve Connell told me.
My takeaway from the trip was that Trump's supporters are more passionate than his critics. And the Trump's skeptics we found weren't necessarily excited about Haley. Even Wayne MacDonald — who had been fully behind Chris Christie in his anti-Trump campaign — wouldn't rule out voting for the former president.
It all makes me wonder: will Haley be much better at peeling GOP voters away from Trump than Christie? We’ll know on Tuesday night.
TRIP NOTES:
++ I had an excellent omelet at a Red Arrow Diner, a staple in the state.
++ On the drive home, we stopped at the L.L. Lee Scouting Museum, located in a summer camp near Manchester. I am an Eagle Scout and remain involved in the program through my daughters’ troop, so seeing historical patches and memorabilia was cool!
POINT OF PERSONAL PRIVILEGE: Go Bills!
THE QUESTION: What’s the capital of New Hampshire?
Know the answer? Drop me a line at jimmy.vielkind@gmail.com. Or just write with thoughts, feedback or to say hi.
THE LAST ANSWER: Iowa is the Hawkeye state. I have no idea why.