'We’re looking at a new paradigm of the way people work and travel'
The number of passengers riding New York’s subways, buses and commuter railroads may not return to prepandemic levels for more than a decade, a dire forecast for public transit from the largest system in the U.S.
As I reported last week in The Wall Street Journal, the Metropolitan Transportation Authority lowered its estimated 2023 ridership levels to 69% of 2019 levels, as opposed to the previous target of 86%. By the end of 2026, the authority now projects ridership would be 80% of 2019 levels, down from its previous outlook of 87%. Currently, MTA ridership is hovering around 60% of prepandemic levels
Overall, public transit demand is around half of prepandemic levels this month, according to statistics kept by the American Public Transportation Association. Smaller systems have recovered a greater percentage of riders than larger systems such as the MTA, and more bus riders have returned than rail riders, according to an April analysis by the transportation trade group.
The number of people taking public transit on the weekends is closer to prepandemic levels, systems said, suggesting a decrease in passengers who would have commuted to the office.
The continued straits of the MTA are both a reflection of and an obstacle to New York City’s lagging recovery and the millions of office workers who fueled its economy. Around 40% of workers have returned to offices across the metropolitan region, according to swipe-card data analyzed by Kastle Systems.
So what’s next? MTA officials said they will run out of the federal aid they’ve used to cover their operating deficits at the end of 2024 — a year sooner than originally forecast. They said they’ll redouble their efforts to attract riders by adding more police patrols and cracking down on homeless people in the system. But they also said they’re starting a discussion about potential service adjustments and new funding streams.
“The world has changed. We’re looking at a new paradigm of the way people work and travel,” said Lisa Daglian, who leads an advisory committee that expresses the concerns of riders. “We need to be looking at a new funding paradigm, too.”
ADIOS FOR A BIT: I’m going to be on vacation for the next two weeks, which in addition to not reporting or writing will (hopefully) mean no social media. And a break in these missives. The last time I tried to take a summer vacation, the governor of New York resigned. Let’s not do that again!
THE QUESTION: No trivia this week. Instead, I’d like to know how the pandemic has changed how you (or your friends and family) use public transportation. Were you a five-day-a-week commuter who now rides two or three days? Have concerns about public safety prompted you to ride less? Have higher gas prices led you to ride more? Has nothing changed because you still need to take it to work?
I’d love to hear about any and all of it! Drop me a line at jimmy.vielkind@gmail.com. Or just write with thoughts, feedback or to say hi.
THE LAST ANSWER: Penn Station opened its doors in 1910. It was designed by the firm of McKim, Mead & White and styled (in part) on the ancient Roman Baths of Caracalla.