What Tom Suozzi's Win in NY-3 Means
Special election showed Democrats can withstand GOP immigration attacks
Democrat Tom Suozzi won a special election Tuesday on Long Island, flipping a seat in Congress from the GOP and sending a signal that his party can withstand Republican attacks on immigration in swing districts far from the border.
As I reported last week in The Wall Street Journal, Suozzi defeated Republican Mazi Pilip, the Associated Press said, to reclaim his seat representing New York’s Third Congressional District. The campaigns and outside political-action committees spent more than $20 million on ads and organizing. Part of that centered on the record-setting number of illegal crossings at the border—a point of scrutiny for President Biden and down-ballot Democrats heading into November.
“This race was centered on immigration and the economy—much like the issues all across our country,” Suozzi told supporters Tuesday night. “We, you, won this race, because we addressed the issues and we found a way to bind our divisions.”
The largely suburban district covers parts of Nassau County, including its North Shore, as well as parts of northeast Queens. Pilip held rallies in that borough near a tent city—just outside the district boundary—which was set up by city officials to care for 1,000 migrants.
Betty Baumann, 84, a retired operations manager for an insurance company, said she voted for Pilip in large part because of the tent shelter facility for migrants that had been erected just around the corner.
“My backyard is facing this migrant situation and that’s why I’m voting,” Baumann, a Republican, told my colleague Erin Ailworth. “It’s going to affect our taxes, it has to. My heart does go out to the people but they should come here legally.”
It’s never clear just how much you should extrapolate from an off-cycle election — especially one this far from November. The turnout is always lower, and a freak snowstorm which struck Monday into Tuesday morning added a further complication. Pundits and party leaders seemed to agree that was a negative for Republicans, who are less likely to take advantage of early-voting periods and who tend to vote early on election day itself.
And there are the particulars of the candidates. Suozzi has been in elective office in the area for more than 30 years. He’s run twice (unsuccessfully) for governor. In other words, he knows how to give a speech and how to seize on an issue. He’s also got years of good-will and name recognition that he was able to draw upon.
By contrast, Pilip first won office in 2021. “Privately, however, GOP operatives acknowledged that Pilip ran as a tightly scripted, somewhat inscrutable candidate who didn’t engage voters,” according to Newsday columnist Dan Janison.
Cautioning against over-reading, Nate Cohn wrote in the New York Times that when Suozzi’s eight-point victory margin last week was basically in line with Joe Biden’s 2020 showing in the district.
“I think it’s entirely plausible to argue that these results are great for Democrats, given what’s going on in New York,” Cohn wrote. “It’s a lot less plausible, however, to interpret the results as a repudiation of Democratic weakness in the Empire State.”
Biden’s campaign said Suozzi’s win was a good sign heading into November. He as well as vulnerable Democrats across the country have been trying to turn the tables on Republicans who have been tying them to the record number of illegal crossings at the southern border.
Suozzi did that by embracing a bipartisan Senate deal that would have established a new asylum process at the border to deliver fast case resolutions and swift deportations for migrants who don’t qualify. Pilip rejected it; it failed a preliminary Senate vote and was declared DOA by Republican leaders in the House.
Gabby Seay, co-director of the labor-backed Battleground New York coalition, gave Suozzi credit for leaning in.
“He didn’t try to change the subject,” Seay told me. “Republicans tried to tie Tom to what they call disastrous policies, but what they did was give him an opportunity to lead and to shine. To talk about how he’s worked on the problem in the past and will respond to it in the future.”
THE QUESTION: Who did Tom Suozzi challenge in his two campaigns for governor?
Know the answer? Drop me a line at jimmy.vielkind@gmail.com. Or just write with thoughts, feedback or to say hi.
THE LAST ANSWER: Facebook was started at Harvard.